Few commentators appear to have confidence in the efforts by Donald Trump to bring peace to Ukraine, and still less express any hope of Vladimir Putin negotiating in good faith. The Ukrainian government and people seem willing to tolerate extreme hardships rather that accede to Russia demands.

They have memories, personal and racial, of the heartless Russian yoke. Fortunately, they have rich, powerful allies in western Europe who see Ukraine as a bulwark against further Russian aggression against Poland or the Baltic states and a future partner in the European Project.Russia, on the other hand, is in a parlous state.

Half of its Black Sea fleet has been destroyed by missiles and drones, and around 85% of its tanks. It still has an enormous air force, but is afraid to use it due to its proven vulnerability to the superior technology of western aircraft and anti-aircraft systems supplied to Ukraine by its allies.It claims to have 700,000 soldiers in occupied Ukraine, but there is significant evidence that this may be another Putin bluff.

Russia has largely ceased the massed assaults that once threatened to overwhelm defences. One analyst suggests that this tactic was more than mindless sacrifice and was required to prevent Ukraine from having the resources and will to counterattack.While this is not yet being widely discussed, my sense is that both sides in the conflict have far fewer troops than such an extended front line would require.

Videos now show advances, rather than actual attacks, by handfuls of middle-aged poor male Russians, inadequately equipped and fed, and keen to surrender. The fog of war, it appears, may have grossly underestimated Russian casualties, although the published figures are horrific. The regime, so I believe, is reluctant to acknowledge fallen soldiers as a way of avoiding paying benefits to the huge number of widows and orphans that it is wantonly creating.

Might this be the reason they don’t want their infantry using social media?Ukraine troops, while also perilously thinned, all look like calm, confident and experienced professionals. Ukraine is talking up its prospects of going on the offensive, recapturing land, perhaps even Crimea. It is dominating the drone war, which will help to provide air cover. I suspect this talk is more than just for purposes of morale. Any significant advance by Ukraine will panic Putin, who, with no effective conventional forces left, will threaten nuclear intervention with a shrillness not yet seen.

I still believe that that arsenal is in no state to be used, but we may still need to hold our nerve!Couple his cruel and insane battlefield losses with the equally perilous state of the Russian economy, and you start to see a way in which the war might end. Russia is suffering soaring inflation and interest rates, companies defaulting on loans and facing bankruptcy, manufacturing output falling, economic sanctions and a shortage of workers and you have a nation you might expect to be desperate for peace.In 2025, Putin pushed all his chips into his historic mission and so post-war Russia, win or lose, will shortly pay the price. Post-defeat Russia will be a terrible thing.

Chronically short of money, modern technology and young men, it will need major help, which, if it is not to become part of greater China, will have to come from Europe.If defeated, Ukraine will simply vanish. In victory, despite the annihilation of so many villages, towns and cities, there will be jubilation, confidence and renaissance, which, given their spirit, technological advances, and friends has the potential to be swift.