It was unlikely that the meeting between the Presidents of Russia and the USA to discuss Ukraine would find a quick ‘solution’ – but it may be the beginning of a peace process.

This is a complex conflict. There was an ongoing civil war between Ukrainian nationalists and Russian speakers within Ukraine which erupted into war between the two nations.

Ukraine was supported by the USA and ‘the west’ as part of a long-term strategy to weaken Russia and maintain western global primacy. The aim was to expand NATO into Ukraine to threaten Russia. Ukraine is not part of NATO and none of the European powers or the USA had the capacity to directly intervene. Ukraine became a proxy fighting a war against Russia on behalf of ‘the west’ led by the USA. It was promised armaments support for ‘as long as it takes’.

The USA has been the driving force behind the war but now wants ‘out’. It wants a global ‘division of labour’ whereby Europe handles the Ukraine conflict while the USA confronts China. This is indicative of the declining power of the USA in the world.

President Trump senses this. It is part of what his ‘Make America Great Again’ movement is about. He believes the USA is overextended. He wants an end to the ‘forever wars’ and the huge debt that they have generated. Depicting him as a stooge of President Putin is nonsense. The reality is that the USA is in decline.

This decline has been accelerated by the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainian army has been severely depleted in a war of attrition and is beginning to crumble. This will be the decisive factor in peace negotiations.

US war hawks and European countries will oppose any settlement that looks like a damaging defeat for ‘the west’. This accounts for the near hysteria in Europe and in Britain.

The current position can be summarised as follows:

Ukraine and Europe want a ‘ceasefire’ and a ‘freeze’ in the conflict that allows ‘the west’ to re-arm and start the fight again in the future.

Russia wants the ‘underlying causes of the conflict’ to be addressed to achieve lasting peace. It says this can only be achieved by ceding Russian speaking territory to Russia and keeping NATO out of Ukraine.

‘The West’ has fought this war with ‘optics’ that paint Ukraine as good and Russia as evil. The reality on the battlefield has not been accurately reported and the causes of the conflict ignored. Optics don’t win wars. Unless there is a settlement the conflict will continue until the Ukrainian military can no longer fight effectively and Ukraine is forced to concede to Russia’s demands. This will be a huge defeat for the west and the USA.

The realisation of this may force reluctant European politicians to concentrate their minds on achieving peace sooner rather than later. The meeting in Alaska did not end the war – but it could be the beginning of the end.