While the US war with Iran dominates the headlines, it appears intractable. Only a significant and lengthy ground campaign, with Vietnam-like repercussions, can loosen their choke-hold on vital world shipping. Trump Always Chickens Out, we are told, but in this case, he does not have the option to continue, as the military and the Congress will both refuse.

Things appear closer to resolution in Eastern Europe where reports from surrendering Russians have led to estimates that the survival expectation of recruits is measured in days. For several months, these have been sent to their fate in dribs and drabs, cold, hungry and ill-equipped.

Tallies of Russian losses are based on evidential images, but there are also those who have infiltrated Ukrainian lines, hidden in basements and succumbed to hypothermia or dehydration while waiting for promised reinforcements. There are many, according to reports, fatally disciplined by their own side.

Russia claims to have 600,000 to 700,000 men under arms in occupied Ukraine, but the some information suggests that the size of their occupying force is far smaller. This tallies with the ease with which recent probing advances by Ukraine have succeeded, though the Ukrainians, who have lost so many brave young men, remain cautious.

Despite prognostications, perhaps there is no mass Russian infantry that could become disillusioned enough to march on Moscow. Perhaps this is favoured by a nervous Kremlin, though forced on Russia by a war poorly conceived and conducted. There is certainly a widespread belief that, from here on, Ukraine will be doing more advancing than retreating.In Moscow, over recent months, numerous Russian generals have fallen from windows, been arrested or simply sacked. Were these sycophants really a threat to their boss or did this strip away a protective shell from around the great leader? A significant part of Putin’s communication to his people is one of health and virility. He chairs important meetings, strides manfully through the Kremlin, and disseminates these clips by way of propaganda. But recently, short clips emerged of him limping or struggling with a hacking cough. Not images you would expect to be shared.

Pathologically loyal bloggers are suddenly questioning the war, the losses, the social and economic repercussions. I do not see any of this happening with Putin still in control. This raises a tentative narrative that again no-one appears to have suggested.In this speculative tale, the secret service has been removing their rivals, the leaders of the military, and preparing for a change in leader.

On the day that the Ayatollahs were accorded the privilege of martyrdom, this shadowy cabal saw an opportunity. ‘Vladimir Vladimirovich, your location is compromised. They plan to assassinate you with bombs. Come with us. Now.’ And Vladimir Vladimirovich has not appeared in public since. Instead, accidentally released video clips, bloggers and even newspapers appear to be preparing the ground for a more critical view of squire Putin, and hence for regime change.Putin’s war is lost. This much is widely agreed. For the rest, I may simply be imagining faces in clouds.