The broadcast media have become very agitated about the prospects for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. I have serious doubts about this, as it doesn’t appear to be attractive to either side.I was reminded recently that Russia and its predecessor, the Soviet Union, have been actively trying to undermine western countries and their cohesion since the latter’s inception.

Vlad the Invader has been involved in all manner of expansionist wars, mostly to the South, but this attempt to take over Ukraine is a huge escalation.It has become evident that he has planned for this over many years, accumulating both weaponry and a treasure cache of cash, gold and other assets to finance it. Since it appears that he genuinely expected Kiev to fall within a few days, we must conclude that this war chest was intended for the further invasion of Finland, Poland and the Baltic States.This cannot be lost on European governments, who have shown great resolution in support of Ukraine as a bastion against this evil intent. If Putin’s determination to continue is forged in this historic Soviet mindset, why might western leaders be inclined to continue?

The answer, I believe, lies in that visible resolve of Russia. That nation is considered to be a threat to the West once Ukraine is either occupied or neutered and Putin can focus on rearming for that greater war. It is possible that our leaders see the opportunity to negate that threat for a generation.The war has been tough on Ukraine, but also on Russia. The YouTube community of supporters of and reporters on Ukraine have settled on the quite horrific figure of 1.2 million able-bodied male Russian fatal casualties to date. I feel that this is a grave underestimate, as these are the losses for which evidence is available.

Beyond Moscow and St Petersburg, Putin’s murderous activities have hollowed out the workforce in agriculture and industry, and the country is suffering accordingly.Online discussions have therefore moved on to trying to evaluate the decimation of financial reserves and the prospects for economic catastrophe. Will there be a banking collapse in Russia? There are certainly signs, with company profits hit, bankruptcies and more. Given the imposed economic isolation, my expectation is that such a collapse would not spread to western nations.T

here are also changes in the nature of the conflict. Rather than the pitched battles of the Summer, which resulted in small changes to the position of the frontline and huge damage to the Russian army, the situation has become more fluid. What is being reported are skirmishes, in which the far better trained Ukrainian military has the clear upper hand. It suggests that both sides are short on manpower.Russian losses of tanks, artillery, mobile radar, and even ships and aircraft are also closely monitored and the losses across the duration of the war are huge.

We see Russians travelling on horseback, attacking on mopeds and in family cars. Images of Russian oil refineries in flames were daily news for two months before Ukraine shifted to Putin’s shadow fleet of sanctions-breaking oil tankers and Russia’s power grid.I am not suggesting that western leaders take any joy from the human catastrophe that is taking place in Russia, but they must see advantage in further weakening the machinery of war and the economy that sustains it.

Also, perhaps, the personal risk that this poses to Putin’s rule and even his person. Can that megalomaniac even see advantage in a long overdue peace, or will he continue to a bitter end?