Regular readers will know that I have been consistently more positive on the prospects for Ukraine and negative on those for Russia than the standard narrative in the broadcast media.There are a number of factors in this discrepancy. Ukraine is a far more open society, so that it is normal to see the brutal damage done to apartment blocks in Kiev and Kharkiv. It has an interest in showing the world its suffering, as this influences our views and, with it, our aid, while Putin is very keen that the World and his own population not know the terrible cost of this ill-advised adventure in money, equipment and, most tragically, Russian lives.This means that, while the cruel damage to Ukraine’s cities is nightly on our screens, the relentless attrition by Ukraine of the Russian war machine goes almost unnoticed.

Occasionally, a spectacular coup by the good guys will break through, such as the recent mass destruction of Russian nuclear bombers, but did anyone notice the even more recent drone demolition of Russian radar and defence equipment in occupied Crimea, amounting to maybe 2.5 billion dollars’ worth in a single night? Yes, billion.These are the most technically advanced systems in the Kremlin’s arsenal, and yet are unable even to protect themselves, highlighting the difference in technological capability between East and West.

While the attacks on Ukrainian civilians are highly visible, the relentless nature of the constant, effective targeting of Russian military assets is only visible on YouTube and Telegram, the latter ironically created by a Russian emigré. At the start of the war, Ukraine’s goal was the simple expedient of day-to-day survival. Then Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s star shone through, as he charmed western nations and brought us all, obliquely, into the war.The front lines became bogged down in trench warfare, with the constant threat by the U.S., always instinctively isolationist, to withdraw arms supplies and satellite and other intelligence. Ukraine had become expert in using those highly detailed images to target Russian war machines, troop concentrations and gatherings of top brass. Europe also has surveillance satellites, but has been circumspect about whether this is available to our Ukrainian allies.Ukraine, realising that Western help is potentially ephemeral, subject to swings of public opinion and each passing election, has created its own military industrial complex, learning rapidly from highly advanced western systems as they are, no doubt, examined in detail before use.

Simpler Ukrainian versions are now coming online. They have also become global leaders in drone technology. Far less sophisticated than British weaponry, for example, they are still highly effective in the destruction of Russian troops and equipment, due to the massive degradation of Moscow’s defensive capabilities over the past three years.Over the summer, Putin has launched a significant ground offensive aimed at finally ending this ‘special operation’, but it has been remarkably ineffective and hence gone largely unnoticed. This is a testament to its insane losses of properly trained troops and experienced leaders alongside tanks, missile systems, advanced radar &c.In three tragic years of war, the Russian military has regressed several decades in its capability. Ukraine has advanced similarly.

With the Russian economy already running on fumes, Ukraine can now destroy Russian oil depots and refining capacity with impunity. Also, its export pipelines and port facilities. Multiple videos have appeared showing kilometre-long queues for petrol across the provinces, with Moscow projected to follow suit.Finally, there is a chance that we will see a major shift in the narrative. Will Putin be forced to accept a peace deal, perhaps even on Ukrainian terms?