Recently, I was reading the news and was struck by a strong sense of déjà vu. If you have been following this column, you may have felt it too.The headline story read like a prediction that I made at the start of the year, that the friendship between the World’s richest man, Elon Musk, and its most powerful, U.S. President Donald Trump, could not last for long, and that when the breakup came, it would be spectacular.

Next up was the recognition that the war in Ukraine was proving intractable. I had suggested that this would be the case. The reasons that I gave then have become a routine part of mainstream reporting.So, where do these stories go next?Well, the Trump and Musk bromance, as it is now being called, is not necessarily the end of all cooperation. There is no trust between them, no love to lose, but each is more than capable of using the other, brutally, if the situation demands. We will have to wait to see if that transpires, but Musk’s election financing, his tweets of support and his stewardship of DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, are all firmly in the past.

His spacecraft are needed to ferry astronauts, so that should keep the Donald from exercising too much retribution, something he seems to enjoy.Regarding Ukraine, supposed online experts have stopped, or at least paused, their predictions that the war will end this year, as Ukraine runs out of soldiers and Russia loses yet more equipment. Whether Putin experiences a manpower crisis appears to depend on a small handful of allies, such as North Korea, being willing to sacrifice its youth to his hubris.It is not clear that sanctions can cause real pain to Putin, as it is the Russian people who will bear the personnel losses and economic suffering. Historically, they have endured far worse.

Western Europe appears to have settled for the status quo, where Russia gains ground by the metre, while sacrificing its rural poor by the thousand.I suspect that Mad Bad Vlad will only negotiate for real if and when his forces are in retreat, but would you want to be the one to suggest boosting Ukraine’s armaments with that blood-soaked intention? Would you feel that you had become the person who suggested the bombing of Dresden or Hiroshima to shorten an earlier conflict?It was Groundhog Day also on the domestic political front, with another race-based row – this over the burqa – and key resignation from Reform. No real surprise to anyone. To double down on that prediction: this is not a problem that will go away or that the overly ambitious Nigel can ignore.

Labour, in turn, continues to be relentless in its plans, while Kemi Badenoch comes under repeated pressure. The latter was an easy one to predict; since when has a Party’s first leader in opposition been a success? It is a fascinating slow car crash to watch, and its nature is becoming clearer. The Tory leader is cool, systematic and (questionably) logical, while many in her rump parliamentary caucus are less sanguine, racked by fear of the Party’s rapid extinction.I

f the Conservative Party can hang on to her for long enough to wait for Reform to implode, ingloriously, then her successor may have better fortune.Labour have gambled, though that might be too exciting a word, on a dull, stable, political plan to gain the trust first of business and then of the electors, and that both will happen well before the next general election. I predict success.