A PROPOSED by-pass to cure a notorious bottleneck on the A48 – now estimated at costing at least £75 million – has “no realistic” prospect of being funded.

Council chiefs say there is no justification for spending any more public money on studies into the Chepstow by-pass – also known as the Forest Gateway.

It had been proposed the road would link the A48 at Tidenham to the M48 roundabout at Thornwell.

The estimated cost in 2021 was £60 million but a new report, prepared by Monmouthshire County Council’s chief infrastructure officer, Debra Hill-Howells, has warned costs are likely to have increased: “In today’s values that will have exceeded £75m and the geopolitical landscape will continue to create further risk around the supply chain costs.” 

The report states no further studies have been undertaken to update the original £60m estimate and final predicted costs will remain uncertain until the necessary next design stage study, which would also test the environmental, financial viability and policy compliance, can be completed. 

Ms Hill-Howells’ report has been produced in response to a call from councillors earlier this year for an update on the council’s position on the proposed road as well as funding options and a timetable on working with Gloucestershire County Council and the Welsh and UK governments. 

Her report states the greatest benefit from the route would be for commuters in England and as such the council considers most of the cost, and work in preparing it, should fall on English councils and the Westminster government. 

“Whilst the proposed bypass is intended to relieve congestion in Chepstow, the greatest benefit is likely to be derived from commuters in England who would have improved highways access to the M48.  

“We would therefore expect UK Government and neighbouring English local authorities to play a significant role in the progression and funding of the proposed bypass,” said Ms Hill-Howells. 

As a Chepstow bypass hasn’t been included in the previous Welsh Government’s future road investment pipeline it hasn’t been tested against the criteria for assessing proposed new roads. 

As such there is little prospect of Welsh Government funding and while the Cardiff Capital Region, which includes Monmouthshire, has identified resolving congestion around Chepstow a priority no funding has been allocated for studies on how to do so. 

Ms Hill-Howells’ report said outside of the Capital Region’s combined council committee there are no known funding opportunities for new infrastructure in Wales and a Chepstow bypass hasn’t been included in the UK Government’s 10-year pipeline of investment projects. 

The report suggested new housing in the Forest of Dean could be leveraged and stated: “The UK Government has increased house building targets in neighbouring English authorities, and they will need to consider the associated infrastructure demand and development costs when providing consent for further development along the estuary. 

“It remains uncertain how an infrastructure scheme of this magnitude can be delivered, unless public sector borrowing or private sector investment can be levered.” 

The report was due to be presented at Monmouthshire County Council’s meeting on Thursday, June 25.